Harris Vs Trump on the Philippines and Southeast Asia
Donald Trump is often described as an isolationist; he promotes an “America First” narrative and has advocated for reducing America's involvement in global conflicts. NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a military alliance targeted at safeguarding the freedom and security of its members through political and military means. Trump has suggested pulling the U.S. out of NATO, which reflects his isolationist stance, as it would mean reducing America's commitment to its allies and stepping back from its leadership role in global defence. He has also voiced opposition to sending extensive aid and military support to conflict zones, such as Ukraine and Israel. In Southeast Asia, where geopolitical tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea are mounting, Trump's stance could signal a reduced U.S. commitment to regional security. He has already indicated that if reelected, he may force Taiwan to pay for its defence from the U.S., a stance that reflects his "America First" ideology. His rationale relates to Taiwan's dominance in the semiconductor industry, which he claims they “stole” from the USA.
In contrast, Kamala Harris is expected to largely continue Joe Biden’s approach to foreign policy. This includes reinforcing the strength and importance of NATO and maintaining support for Ukraine, Israel, and other allies. Unlike Trump, Harris would likely reaffirm America's alliances and security commitments in Asia, including the Philippines, to counterbalance China's growing influence. One possible change in her policy from Biden’s could be a more pronounced acknowledgment of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza as reflected in her recent comments recognising allegations of genocide in Gaza. Like Biden, she would likely continue to view China as an economic and strategic competitor, enforcing existing sanctions and promoting partnerships with Southeast Asian nations to resist Chinese territorial aggression, especially in contested waters like the South China Sea.
Regardless of these differences in foreign policy, the U.S. remains heavily intertwined with global geopolitics no matter which party holds power. Given the sharp contrasts between Trump's isolationist tendencies and Harris' continuation of multilateral engagement, it is only natural for both the citizens and governments of Southeast Asian countries to be concerned about the outcome of the 2024 election. The next president will not only shape America's role in global conflicts but will also directly influence U.S. relationships with its regional allies in a time when geopolitics are fragile.
In the case of a second Trump presidency, Southeast Asia, and particularly the Philippines, may see a reduction in U.S. security commitments. While Trump has not explicitly outlined a detailed foreign policy approach for the region, he may lean towards potential cuts to military aid and cooperation. For the Philippines, this could mean a reduction in joint military exercises, limitations on or even the closure of U.S. bases, and possible amendments to the long-standing Mutual Defense Treaty between the two countries, which requires both nations to support each other if another party attacks the Philippines or the United States. The reduction of U.S. influence could prompt Southeast Asian nations to seek alternative security arrangements or engage more diplomatically with China, further shifting the regional balance of power. Economically, Trump’s "trade war" with China, initiated in 2018, disrupted the global supply chain, including in Southeast Asia. For instance, Philippine exports to the U.S. and China, the country's two largest trading partners, were significantly affected, with exports to China dropping by 13% from 2019 to 2020, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). A return of theonist policies could further disrupt trade relationships, impacting sectors like electronics, agriculture, and labour exports in the Philippines.
In the case of a Harris presidency, she would likely reinforce the United States' dedication to its allies, especially in Southeast Asia. The Philippines could see advantages from continued military collaboration and potentially higher defence funding aimed at addressing Chinese dominance in the South China Sea due to the Mutual Defence Treaty. In 2022, Harris reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the treaty, emphasising the “ironclad” nature of U.S. defence support for the Philippines in case of external attack, particularly in the South China Sea. Furthermore, Harris might bolster economic ties with the Philippines, emphasising green energy, infrastructure projects, and digital advancements, thereby offering alternatives to China's Belt and Road Initiative, targeted at stimulating infrastructure growth in developing countries. The Philippines backed out of the initiative in November 2023, indicating that the government may be trying to lessen its economic dependence on China. Moreover, regional stability during a Harris administration could facilitate the Philippines in managing its relationships with both the U.S. and China without fully yielding to pressure from China, especially given the heightened regional tensions in recent months.
In regards to the broader Southeast Asian region, the two candidates could significantly influence its future, particularly concerning economic conditions and national security. A primary concern is the ongoing rivalry between the United States and China, which is anticipated to persist irrespective of the election outcome. During Trump's initial term, his administration enacted tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese imports, disrupting global trade dynamics and contributing to heightened economic uncertainty in Southeast Asia. The World Bank reported that Southeast Asian nations experienced an average annual decline of 0.3% in GDP growth rates due to the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Should Trump secure a second term, this may lead to the continuation of these tariffs, further destabilising the economic environment for ASEAN countries that are heavily dependent on trade with China, particularly the Philippines, which regards China as its largest trading partner.
Conversely, Harris is anticipated to enhance economic relations with Southeast Asia by maintaining a focus on multilateral trade agreements. In 2022, total trade between Southeast Asia and the U.S. reached $441.6 billion, marking a 30% increase from 2020, a sign of the Biden-Harris administration's commitment to economic engagement with the region. Harris is likely to strengthen these connections, potentially rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which could attract international investments to Southeast Asia that especially benefits the Philippines as it seeks to modernise its infrastructure nationwide.
The South China Sea continues to be a significant point of contention in the region, with China asserting claims over more than 90% of the area under its "Nine-Dash Line" regulation (or 10-Dash Line as seen in China’s most recent national maps). According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), China's maritime militia operates approximately 300 vessels in contested waters, frequently clashing with Filipino fishermen and the Philippine Coast Guard. A Trump administration, characterised by a diminished emphasis on global alliances, may encourage China to amplify its military presence in the South China Sea, further exacerbating regional instability. In contrast, Harris' emphasis on multilateral security cooperation, including her support for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with Japan, India, and Australia, could deter Chinese aggression and provide Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, with greater security backing.
As the 2024 U.S. election draws near, the Southeast Asian region finds itself at a critical crossroad. For the Philippines, which is situated amid competing global powers, the election of the next U.S. president could significantly impact its geopolitical and economic position. A potential Trump administration may result in diminished military and financial assistance, thereby increasing the nation's susceptibility to China's expanding influence. On the contrary, a Harris administration could bolster U.S. alliances in Southeast Asia, offering the Philippines enhanced military, economic, and diplomatic support amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea.
Given China's growing assertiveness, the Philippines, Taiwan, and its regional counterparts need to maintain robust and secure relations with the United States. Nevertheless, as the election approaches, the region must brace itself for either outcome, ensuring it can adeptly and swiftly navigate the constantly shifting landscape of U.S. foreign policy. In this dangerous situation, the stakes for the region, particularly for the Philippines, have reached unprecedented levels.
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